System Dynamics for Food Security Analysis of Minahasa Regency in North Sulawesi Province Robert Molenaar, Erny Nurali, Hildy Wullur
Sam Ratulangi University
Abstract
The definition of food security according to Law no. 18/2012 concerning Food, are: ^The condition of the fulfillment of Food for the state to individuals, which is reflected in the availability of sufficient food, both in quantity and quality, safe, diverse, nutritious, equitable and affordable and does not conflict with religion, belief and community culture, to be able to live a healthy, active and productive life in a sustainable manner^. Food security is thus a system with subsystems of availability, distribution, and consumption.
System dynamics is a modeling method whose use is closely related to the dynamic tendencies of complex systems, namely the behavior patterns generated by the system over time. The main assumption in the system dynamics paradigm is that the dynamic tendencies that are continuous in any complex system originate from the causal structures that make up the system.
In this study, the dynamic system modeling method is used to identify the behavior of the regional food security system in Minahasa Regency with the aim of analyzing the dynamics of the causal relationship of the variables that affect the food security system in terms of production, consumption, and rice stock in Minahasa Regency by using an approach systems and application of dynamic systems modeling techniques. In this study, a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) was made of the rice availability system based on the relationship between the production sub-system, consumption sub-system and the government^s rice reserve sub-system involving the relationship of a number of variables to produce a model output in the form of projections of rice availability in Minahasa Regency for the period 2021-2030
Keywords: modeling, simulation, System dynamics
Topic: Emerging Technologies in Agricultural Production Systems
