The projected free aflatoxin disease of future peanut cropping areas in Australia Haerani haerani, Armando Apan, Badri Basnet
Universitas Hasanuddin
The University of Southern Queensland
Abstract
Climate holds an important role in determine the growth and distribution of species, including peanut crops and one of their disease, namely aflatoxin. Unfortunately climate is changing, and as with other species, this changing could affect the distributions of peanut and aflatoxin in the future. In this study, we aimed to locate the projected peanut cropping areas in Australia which have a risk of aflatoxin invasion in the future. We overlaid the results of previous studies on the projections of peanut crops and aflatoxin distributions in 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100. These previous studies employed CLIMEX model based on Global Climate Model (GCMs) of CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC-H under SRES A-2 climate change scenarios. The map overlay results between the future projections of aflatoxin and peanut crops resulted in small areas of low aflatoxin risk in the future projected areas of peanut crops. It is projected that most of the current peanut cultivation areas will have a high aflatoxin risk, while others will no longer be favourable for peanut cultivation in the future.
Keywords: climate change, peanut, aflatoxin, climate model
