Economic Loss Analysis Based on Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) Method in Batukaras Village Muhammad Wahyu Al Ghifari (1), Wiwin Windupranata (2*), Alqinthara Nuraghnia (1), Intan Hayatiningsih (2)
(1) Master Program of Geodesy and Geomatics Engineering, Faculty of Earth Sciences and Technology, Bandung Institute of Technology, Jalan Ganesha 10, Bandung 40132, Indonesia
(2) Research Group of Hydrography, Faculty of Earth Sciences and Technology, Bandung Institute of Technology, Jalan Ganesha 10, Bandung 40132, Indonesia
*w.windupranata[at]itb.ac.id
Abstract
Batukaras Village, located in Cijulang Sub-district, Pangandaran Regency, South of Java Island, Indonesia, is one of the areas that is highly vulnerable to earthquakes and tsunamis due to its geographical location close to the megathrust plate. Historically, a tsunami has already occurred in Pangandaran Regency on July 17, 2006 with an earthquake measuring 7.6 Mw. This study uses the results of modelling conducted using the Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) method. The results of PTHA are in the form of tsunami height points around the coast. Therefore, this research discusses in detail the modelling that can be done to propagate tsunami waves to land areas from the PTHA results using Berryman and Smart numerical calculations. Based on the results of this modelling, potential economic losses, both direct and indirect, can be calculated. This calculation process is based on the economic valuation of the built-up land sector and productive land obtained directly through field surveys conducted on April 24-25, 2024. The results of this study show that the potential economic losses felt by the community in Batukaras Village range from 11 billion to 637 billion rupiah based on the Berryman method and range from 138 billion rupiah to 465 billion rupiah based on the Smart method, which varies depending on the return period of an earthquake. Meanwhile, for the average value of total losses from these two methods, Rp75,065,123,293 was obtained for a return period of 250 years, Rp128,511,774,971 for 500 years, Rp231,224,915,196 for 1000 years, and Rp551,678,261,963 for 2500 years.
