The Influence of ENSO on electricity production in Cirata hydro power
Reza Kurniawan Harnandika(*1,4), Muhammad Rais Abdillah(2), Ivonne M. Radjawane(3), Liza Kurniawan Mansur(1), Zuhda Nur Prabowo(1)

*) cloudyreza[at]gmail.com
1) Earth Science Masters Program, Faculty of Earth Science and Technology, ITB
2) Atmospheric Science Research Group, Faculty of Earth Science and Technology, ITB
3) Oceanography Research Group, Faculty of Earth Science and Technology, ITB
4) UIP2B Java-Bali, PT PLN (Persero)

Abstract

This study examines the influence of El Nino Southern Oscillation or ENSO on electricity production at the Cirata hydroelectric power plant in West Java, Indonesia from 2010 to 2023. Using data on ENSO indices, precipitation, reservoir water levels, and electricity production, the research analyses correlations between these variables during different seasons. Results show that ENSO has a strong negative correlation with rainfall in the study area, particularly during the June to November dry season. Rainfall, in turn, positively correlates with reservoir water levels and power generation. While ENSO does not directly determine hydropower output, it indirectly impacts production by affecting precipitation patterns and water availability. The study finds that El Nino events generally correspond to decreased rainfall and lower electricity generation at Cirata, while La Nina tends to increase precipitation and power output. However, the relationships are complex and vary seasonally. The strongest correlations occur during the southeast monsoon (June to August) and transitional period (September to November). Despite ENSO related fluctuations, Cirata maintained relatively stable operations, likely due to effective reservoir management and preserved watershed conditions. The research highlights the importance of monitoring ENSO forecasts and optimising water resource management to mitigate impacts on hydropower generation. It recommends strategies such as enhancing water storage during wet periods, improving operational efficiency, and diversifying energy sources to increase resilience to climate variability. Overall, the study provides insights to support long term planning and sustainable management of hydroelectric resources in Indonesia.

Keywords: ENSO, Hydroelectric, Power production and Climate variability

Topic: Interdisciplinary Earth Science and Technology