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Impact of ENSO on the Variability of Electricity Production at a Hydropower Plant in Bakaru Sulawesi, Indonesia a) Earth Science Masters Program, Faculty of Earth Science and Technology, Institut Teknologi Bandung Abstract El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a large-scale interaction of ocean and atmosphere that manifests itself as fluctuations in ocean surface temperature and air pressure in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The impact of ENSO has been felt worldwide, including in the energy sector. Changes in sea surface temperature and rainfall patterns can affect the drainage of river and lake water used for hydroelectric power generation. Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Air (PLTA) is one type of power plant that uses potential energy of water into kinetic energy which is then used to move turbines and generate electricity. Here we investigate the impact of ENSO on the availability of primary energy available in the Bakaru PLTA, South Sulawesi during 2011-2023. A correlation coefficient of -0.35 was obtained from Spearmans correlations test results between ONI with anomalies of discharge and monthly electricity production, implying that during El Nino (La Nina) the electricity production tend to lower (higher) than usual. The negative correlation is consistent with the common relationship between Indonesia rainfall and ONI. From climatological analysis, in 2015 (El Nino) and 2022 (La Nina) the discharges and electricity generation were consistently lower in 2015 (-42.19 m3/s and -29.43 GWh) and higher in 2022 (67.47 m3/s and 39.37 GWh) compared to its climatological data. A better understanding of the impact of ENSO on the availability of primary energy on PLTAs can improve the predictability of future electricity supply. Keywords: ENSO- Hydropower Plant Topic: Interdisciplinary Earth Science and Technology |
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