Premium Climate Services for Mining Company, How Good is It?
Supari(a)*, Alexander Eggy Christian Pandiangan(a), Ahmad Baiquni(b), Robi Muharsyah(a), Indra Gustari(a), Amsari Muzakir Setiawan(a), Adi Ripaldi(a), Alif Akbar Syafrianno(a), Fatchiyah(a), Dian Nur Ratri(a), Niken Wahyuni(a), Tiar Maharani(a), Adyaksa Budi Raharja(a), Novi Fitrianti(a), Arda Yuswantoro(a), Fathiya Nurrahmanita(a), Diah Ariefianty(a), Syahru Romadhon(a), Mia Rosmiati(a), Suci Pratiwi(a), Hasalika Nurjannah(a), Dyah Ayu Kartika(a), and Yohanes Agung Kristomo(a)

a) Indonesia Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), Jakarta, Indonesia
b) PT Berau Coal, Berau, East Kalimantan, Indonesia

Abstract

In recent years, the BMKG (Indonesian Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency) has provided premium climate services to PT Berau Coal, including 10-day and monthly rainfall forecasts. These services are crucial for mining operations in preparing work plans, as rainfall can make roads at the mining site slippery, leading to reduced effective working hours, increased pump operating hours, and higher fuel costs. This study evaluates the performance of ECMWF monthly rainfall predictions for three mining sites (Sambarata, Lati, and Binungan) over the period 2005-2023, based on the availability of rainfall observation data at the mining sites, using the RMSE metric. The analysis shows that for a lead time of one (six) month, i.e., a forecast given one (six) month in advance, the average RMSE is 94 (95) mm/month. The highest error is observed in January, at 140 (144) mm/month, while the lowest error occurs in August, at 65 (69) mm/month. These results indicate that the climate service forecasts have reasonably good accuracy and can be used as a reference in decision-making, although potential errors, as indicated by the RMSE values, should still be considered.

Keywords: Skill,Rainfall Forecast, Mining site, Climate Services

Topic: Atmospheric Sciences