Construction Of Mortality Rate Using Heligman Pollard Model
Azizah Dzakiya (a), Nuraziza Arfan (a), RR. Kurnia Novita Sari (b), Jesslyn Gracsella Rusli (c)

a) Master Program in Actuarial, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Institut Teknologi Bandung
b) Statistics Research Division, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Institut Teknologi Bandung
c) Undergraduate Program in Actuarial, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Institut Teknologi Bandung

Abstract

The idea of constructing mortality table lies in reflecting mortality changes of the member of the study population. This study proposed a construction of mortality table for male and female participants using Heligman Pollard Model and being evaluated using the newest national mortality table published by BPJS Kesehatan Indonesia, Tabel Mortalitas Penduduk Indonesia 2023 (TMPI-23). This research used BPJS Kesehatan Indonesia data set, from 2018 to 2021. The methodology applied in this study includes calculating exposure and death counts at each age, determining the crude mortality rate under Makeham law of mortality assumption, and fitting the result with Heligman Pollard model. Heligman Pollard is one of the graduation methods to capture different mortality pattern throughout entire life span. It has eight-parameter framework composed of three interval ages. The initial term represents the declining in mortality at childhood age. The middle term represents the peak at around age 23 as observed in many mortality tables. And the final term represents the exponential increase of mortality at adult age. The result shows SSE values of both male and female participants are 22,171 and 16,473 respectively, while the MSE values of both male and female participants are 0,198 and 0,147 respectively.

Keywords: Heligman Pollard Model, Mortality Rate, Makeham law, National Mortality Table

Topic: Others