Optimal Green Power Expansion Plant for Sustainable Dynamic Electricity Demand Conny K. Wachjoe, Hermagasantos Zein, Yanti Suprianti, Bella Eliana
Bandung State Polytechnic
Abstract
The growing need for electricity is prompting the expansion of generation capacity. To plan effectively, understanding the current supply capacity and potential growth of power generation technologies is crucial. When it comes to the growth of green power generation technologies, the electricity they produce requires reinvestment for building new power plants, not just to meet demand. This framework proposes the use of dynamic energy demand analysis to examine capacity expansion, LOLP-based load growth potential, and energy dynamics of six clean technologies (solar photovoltaic, wind, hydro, biomass, and natural gas). The power adequacy study focuses on assessing the reliability of generator units to meet future system load demands. The reliability index is measured using the Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) calculated through the Fourier Transform Method, and the LDC is approximated by a fifth-power polynomial function. The simulation results for the power generation system expansion on Lombok Island, Indonesia, suggest a shift from fossil-based plants to NRE-based plants, with NRE contributing 79% of the energy production. Natural gas, a clean energy source replacing fuel oil, still accounts for a substantial 21%. Additionally, solar and wind power plants each contribute 29%, while biomass-based power plants contribute 20%. When a Loss of Load LOLP of 10% is applied, the calculation results range from 0.472 to 0.897 days per year, demonstrating an excellent level of reliability.
Keywords: expansion plan, green power, NRE, reliability LOLP.
