Analysis of the Effect of Export Bans and Copper Export Taxes in Indonesia using the GTAP Model Farel Andeni, Ria Vinola K. Cahyadi, Aldi Ramadan Manullang, Ahmad Fandi, Putri Ayu*
Andalas University
Abstract
The implementation of the 2015 ASEAN Economic Community and policies such as optimizing the provision of fiscal incentives, resolving investment obstacles, and guaranteeing the supply of raw materials and energy are efforts that can be made to achieve the target of increasing added value. Jokowi^s speech at the PDIP 50th anniversary event on January 10 2023 revealed that even though Indonesia lost to the WTO in restricting nickel exports, he would have the courage to limit copper in mid-2023. This research aims to analyze the impact of export bans and taxes. Copper Exports in Indonesia with the GTAP Model. The method used in this research is the multiregional CGE model. The data sources from GTAP-10 consist of 160 countries and 68 sectors combined into 14 regions and eight sectors. The aggregate region consists of Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Japan, China, India, South Korea and the rest of the world. The simulation used in the export ban is 30% of the total (simulation 1) and 100% of the total export (simulation 2), while the export tax simulation uses three simulations, 10%, 30%, and 100%. The results show that the effect of the export ban on the Value of Global Merchandise Imports in simulations 1 and 2 resulted in the mining, manufacturing, transportation, and construction sectors experiencing an increase, the gas sector experiencing a decline. In contrast, the agricultural and services sectors did not change. The effect of the export ban on the Value of Global Merchandise Exports In simulations 1 and 2, the mining, manufacturing, and construction sectors experienced an increase, the gas and transportation sectors experienced a decrease. In contrast, the agricultural and services sectors did not change. Indonesia^s Value of GDP decreased but Indonesia^s Change in Trade Balance increased. The 100% export ban causes further declines in the market price of commodities in sectors gass, agriculture, service, transportation, and construction, except for the value mining and manufacturing sectors. If we look at the export tax, the simulation causes the Value of Global Merchandise Imports and Exports to decrease, the market Price of Commodity in all sectors increases, and the GDP of value increases, but the Trade Balance decreases. So, the export ban policy can have a positive impact on the mining and manufacturing sectors, meaning that downstream for these sectors is successful, it only needs the government^s role in empowering finances and expertise to achieve benefits in other sectors so that the value of GDP increases. If the government implements an export tax, there will be an increase in prices and an increase in the value of GDP. The government needs to help the lower classes with subsidies or assistance so that the value of real income does not decrease.
