The Dynamics of Land Cover Change and Level of Sustainable Development in Depok City, West Java
Vely Brian Rosandi (ab), Andrea Emma Pravitasari (ab*), Andra Septina Rachendra (a)

a) Division of Regional Development Planning, Department of Soil Science and Land Resources, Faculty of Agriculture, IPB University, Bogor 16680, Indonesia.
b) Center for Regional System Analysis, Planning, and Development (CRESTPENT), IPB University,
Bogor 16127, Indonesia

Abstract

As part of the Jabodetabek Metropolitan area, Depok City continues to experience rapid physical changes. The development that has occurred in Depok City since 2000 has impacted land cover changes. On the one hand, the massive development of Depok City has increased the level of the economy. However, this massive development has also caused a decline in environmental quality and threatened environmental sustainability. This research aims to determine future changing trends through predictions of land cover and the level of sustainable development in Depok City. Trends in land cover changes in Depok City were carried out using the overlay method on ArcGIS software using land cover data for 2000, 2009, and 2019 sourced from the Ministry of Environment and Forestry (KLHK). Land cover changes were predicted in 2039 using the Land Change Modeler (LCM) analysis method with a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. Meanwhile, sustainability status is analyzed using the Rapfish Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) method using data/attributes from economic, social, and environmental dimensions. The research results show a change in the land cover in Depok City from 2000 to 2019, dominated by dry land farming to residential areas. From 2009 to 2019, Depok City was dominated by settlements, while four other types of land cover, including water bodies and dry land agriculture, experienced an increase, while mixed dry land and rice field agriculture experienced a decrease. Some open land is expected to experience a significant decline by 2039, while residential areas will continue to increase. The results of the MDS Rapfish analysis show that sub-districts in Depok City have different sustainability statuses, both in economic, social, and environmental dimensions.

Keywords: Land Cover Change, Sustainability, Built-Up Area, Land Change Modeler, Rapfish Multidimensional Scaling

Topic: PEMODELAN PERENCANAAN WILAYAH DAN KOTA